18 March 2010

Not posted for a day or two due to being rather busy elsewhere.

GBP/CHF just catching my eye as it has a nice range on the 1Hr time frame with resistance being at yesterdays high. Price on the 4hr (top left) making high highs and higher lows and price right at the top of the range so a breakout to the upside could put me in long. Entry will be on the lower time frame in the usual way above the breakout high and the stop will be after the pullback low.

AUD/USD

A pair that I don't usually trade but that someone brought up on one of the forums and I have been watching it since. Great example of resistance turning into support on the 4HR (top left) range can be seen on the 15Min and the 1Hr, my bias is bullish so only looking to buy a break to the upside so no short breakout.

                                     

 

 13:42

Very dull London session for me with not much moving so not much to really report, US markets open and still not a huge amount of life. Looking like it could be a slowww day....

16 March 2010

Going to have to keep it short and sweet today :)


Eur/Jpy



I had EJ range bound but making higher highs and higher lows within that range on my 4hr chart. So I had a 4hr trend within a range. Now becasue Im only trading intrady day I can trade this with a bullish bias. I took a counter trend Short  yesterday which I held overnight. Price has pretty much bounced off the 38.2% fib for the trend and so I have managed my stop for the short to the high of the bounce. So if the up trend resumes my short counter trend trade will be stopped out and I have also placed a long entry at this point. Or if price continues to retrace I will remove my long entry and keep trailing the stop down locking in profit. I will get screen shots up ASAP.


Ok so the EJ fib set up to the long side so I managed my stop for the short trade to the same as my Long entry. The short was stopped out for a nice profit and I took the long Entry of the 38.2% fib as shown in the chart.

I was long at 123.75 and things are running nicely. Its a different setup to what I have posted before and as a swing trade it has a different trade management. I have locked In 50 ticks on a 3rd of the posistion and there are still 2/3rds running.

15 March

15 March

Ok so running through the Video setupon Euro/Usd if you didn't get a chance to see it then heres the link.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJ0QSQEy3i0&feature=player_embedded

Price breaking out on the 15Min range that I had marked out (bottom right) and so I'm using the 3M time frame (bottom left) to find my entry below the breakout low. Entry is the red line, blue line is the stop and the green line is my scale out point.

Euro trade on and running so now waiting for the scale out. Come on the Euro.

11:50

Euro trade stopped out and the 15min setup is no longer valid, now looking onto the 4hr and 1 hr ranges as marked out.

14:12

Euro/Jpy short on and running but didn't get a chance to get loads of screen shots and its a different strat so I'll run through the setup another time. It's a swing trade though and will prob be held through the night so I'll update on it tomorrow. :)

11 March 2010

Not posted for a few days as between the managed account and trading for Sigma my personal account hasn't really had a look in. Had some alone time with it this morning though and saw a nice opportunity on the GBP/CHF and thought it was worth a post.

Soooooooo.....

GBP/CHF

Seems to be a similar story accross the board after that big GBP sell off a week or so ago, things have been drifting a little sideways. I've marked out the range in the usual way on the 4Hr and am looking for the breakout or turn around at each extreme. Depending on how active you want to be there is also the potential to fib the range and look for price to turn around at some of those fib levels in the same way I showed before.
However looking at the lower time you can clearly see that a range has developed within my greater range so I've marked this off and would look for this to be my trade setup first. Due to the fact that this range is a little tighter I won't be trading the turn around or using the fib method either and will just wait for the straight break. I also won't go back to looking at that 4hr range untill the lower time frame breaks. I have also marked this out on the 15M chart.

Soo lets see what happens.....



GBP with a little get a little energy boost and pops out the range.

So to the lower time frame we go to try and get in on the action with an entry based on what price is doing.

                  

 The chart should show the entry clearly and now waiting for the trade to trigger or be void.                              


So the trade is still pending and there is some important swissy news out shorty. From my view I'm happy to trade through the news but there are others that would pull the order. For me I placed the trade over an hour before the news (which is my cut off point) so even though it hasn't triggered I'm going to let the order stand Unless it voids by my setup rules.

Swissy trade voided and off the table. Sorry for posting on a rubbish pair today but I wasn't to know that it wasn't going to move for me. Buuuuut the setup is still there. Due to the false break, range high is moved to breakout high.

8th March

Following on from the setups I marked out on yesterdays video the EUR/USD had a little look above its upper boundary but no trade was triggered and price retraced back into the trading range. The retracement has pulled all the way back making a lower low which gives me the green light for a short as this suggests price is turning around at a known point of resistance. My short order is pending below the lower low and I am now waiting for this to trigger or void.

Short Trade on and scale out has just been hit.









Little bit of trade Management for me due to the break of a previous swing high. Stop is now at 1.3655 so worse case the trade is +21 ticks on a 1/3rd of the posistion. :)

Ok so last 1/3rd of the Eur short stopped out and the trade overall was +21 ticks to one lot. So not great but I'll take it. Becasue of the false breakout to the upside my range is now managed to that breakout high to. So we are back to waiting now.

7th March 2010

Usually on a sunday I like to have a quick look at how the week ended and how next week is going to start. This way when I sit down tired and groggy on Monday morning I already know whats going on and can crack on with a cup of coffee before the day gets to taxing.


Video is tiny for some reason so also have it on You tube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHnRBPYTyKs


Thanks

Pozzy

04 March 2010

Sorry I didn't get to finish yesterdays post but all in all a poor day. I kept damage to a minimum and ended up around 40 ticks down so could of been a lot worse and the moves at the start of the week mean that I'm still on track.

I made a cheeky video in the afternoon as I had some time on my hands and It shows a slightly different setup.

I looked at a different pair as well just to try and keep it interesting. This setup works nicely for a wider range so it fits well with what we have seen with the large GBP moves and it also throws in some fibs so mixing it up a little. I'm not to sure if it's the traditional way Fibs are used but it works for me and provides a good way to scalp a larger range after a large move so I thought I would post it. The trade itself wasn’t fantastic and only made a small profit but It shows one of the ways I like to use fibs.For some reason I couldn't upload it so I put it on youtube, (sorry its a little fuzz)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjkhkUYCHAU&feature=player_embedded

Fairly dull morning for me so far, Would like to post a setup but I haven't really got one. Can't see myself doing anything until after all the GBP news. Tried shorting this morning and took a small loss so I'm staying out for now as price action is pretty poor.

Soo back to waiting for me.

Thanks

Pozzy

03 March 2010

Morning,

Thanks again for all the comments......

Had a few beers last night and I'm feeling a little sorry for myself. Defiantly going to write not drinking on a school night into the trade plan!!! Sticking with this Euro range that I had marked out. There was a lovely little reversal last night. I didn't get to trade it as it was late and I wasn't at the desk but thought I would post it any way as it shows how effective this range scalp can be.

The range as you can see is still holding strong. The first touch (green circle) would of been enough to get me short on a lower time frame and would of given me the scale out before being stopped out and the second touch would of put me short again and would hopefully still be short. Now as I wasn't at the desk I didn't get on either trade but im going to stick with the current setup as it still stands. Back to waiting for price to reach either extreme of the range and turn around or to breakout.

Pozzy

2 March 2010

2 March 2010

Morning Guys,

So some very nice moves yesterday on both the Euro and GBP making for a great start to the month.Keeping with the same method of trading I'm looking at align market action with price action.Using the 60 min chart to gage what market action is doing I have marked off the previous swing and high and swing low and I'll be waiting for a break of either one. Due to size of this range it is a fairly unlikely that I will see a valid breakout trade today. However I will be looking to scalp the range. Essentially the swing high and low are areas of support and resistance. So if price reaches either extreme and turns around then there is full grounds to trade the bounce and I'll use price action to determine the entry if this happens.

The same set up applies for the GBP except the range is even larger.

I fully appreciate that the range of this trade is around 400 ticks and that it could take a while for that range to break or even provide a valid trade however thats the trade plan for this particular method and therefor I'll stick to it. You don't have to run this on a 60 min chart you can drop down to a lower time frame and trade it. There are a few other threads on here that go through a 15 minute break out plan which obviously is going to give you more setups throughout the day. For me on a GBP trade like this I mark off the points on my chart and then move onto something else. That way if a trade setsup I get a little alert and I'm not sat around all day / week waiting and watching every tick.

09:50

Ok sooo its the third time in a about a week that i have missed another Euro scalp (different trade setup) due to being away from the desk very very very annoying!! but shrug it off and onto the next opportunity.so Euro at the base of its range, and even though it hasn't touched, it is close enough for me to drop to a lower time frame. I am now looking to see if price breaks through or if it reverses and the support level holds.

As I was typing this Euro has broken out, and had a little go at pushing down.

I took the break out low -2 and round down in the usual way giving me an entry of 1.3430 which as we can see didn't trigger and price has now retraced back into its range. On the back of that there was a little reverse pattern as price broke a previous swing high. Now even though price broke out of the range I had marked due to the fact that no short trade was triggered I am going to still take the range as valid. Which also means that the reversal trade at the base of the range is valid.

Entry is above the break of a previous swing high (pink circle) 1.3480 and the stop is at the pullback 1.3460 (second red line) which coincidentally is the base of the range we had marked out. As this is a range scalp I want to get the risk off as soon as possible so my scale out is going to be at 1.3490 (green line) which for me has just filled so the trade is now risk free and running so lets hope I can ride it all the way to the top of the range.

13:24

Stop moved again on the Euro trade and its looking like it might run out of steam.

Back to waiting for now.

14:10

Euro stop moved again on the break of a previous swing low to 1.3580 and stopped out pretty much straight after

100 ticks on the last 3rd of the trade and 10 ticks on the other 2/3rds (20 ticks to one lot) So overall 120 tick trade to one lot. Not bad for what started out as a little range scalp. Took a little bit of luck on the way with some Greece news which I reckon ran things an extra 30 - 40 ticks up for me but still stuck to the plan and it paid so happy days.

Pozzy

1st March 2010

1 March 2010

Morning guys, Hope you all had a good weekend....Fresh start to the month for me so hoping I get off to a good start. Following on from a similar theme last week I have marked off the swing highs and lows on a 60 min Euro chart.



The red circles clearly mark price making higher highs and higher lows which for me is an uptrend. The pink circle marks the break of a previous swing low. This for me is the first point in time that price has the potential to turn around and signals that there are sellers coming into the market. Straight off the back of that price rallies and makes a higher high (second pink circle). This is whats making conditions for me tough at the moment as the market is really chopping about and flipping my intraday bias. One minute price is making a lower low and so I'm thinking about shorting and then a higher high comes barging in and I'm looking for the long opportunity. This is also whats producing these range bound setups for me as I Mark off the previous swing high and swing low and wait for a break to either a higher high (possible resumption of the uptrend) or a lower low (possible start of a downtrend). This is just my opinion and how I like to trade. Essentially I am waiting for price action and market action to align. Market action gives me the directional bias and price action gives me my entry.

Nice little bit of action there.

The Euro broke down fairly violently and unfortunately I didn't manage to get a good entry on it so I let the trade go. I never like to chase a trade and I was just a little late so decided to leave it. I did the same thing last week as I posted and it worked in my favor as the trade would of been stopped out this week it would of hit targets nicely so it was a shame but it's all swings and roundabouts. The GBP however was a different story and I caught a nice piece of the Pie. I know I'm posting this after the event so it's very easy to look like I'm trading with hindsight but it obviously takes me a little while to write up the trade as well as post it and also my first priority is my own trades. But I did take this trade and I hope that you can see from the setups that I have been posting that it all adds up.So again I'm establishing a market bias, in this case from the hourly chart as I'm only looking for a cheeky scalp, if you have longer term objectives you would use longer term charts.


The red circles marking off lower lows and lower highs showing a down trend. There was a little point where things looked like they could turn around (marked in yellow box) on Friday morning which actually pushed me long at one point but sitting down this morning the direction was still down. I marked off the previous swing high and swing low and was waiting for a break. This isn't to say that things were massively range bound its just what I was using as a reference to trigger my trades. A break to a new swing low shows the downtrend is still going and a break to a new swing high could suggest a change in direction.Price moves to the downside making a new lower low which for me means there is still further downside potential. Market action for me is therefore bearish so I drop to a lower time frame to find my short entry based on price action.




I took the breakout low (red circle) -2 and round down to give me an entry of 1.5070 (red line) My stop is placed above the pull back high +2 and round up to 1.5095 (light blue line) and as the chart shows the order triggered and rapidly sold off.






Price continues to make lower lows and lower highs (red circles) selling off nice untill we get a higher low, higher high (Pink circles) this is showing there is a chance price could turn around and so I manage my stop to the top of the higher high + 2 and round up to 1.4915 (second blue line) which for me has just been stopped out. So a nice 95 ticks on the trade. I hope that has all come out ok as I have tried to power through it so if there are any mistakes please let me know.






Thanks Pozzy.

26/02/2010

26 FebruaryGBP March 10 Contract:



Following on from the same method of marking off the overnight range and then waiting for a break out. I took a little snap shot of a GBP chart pre GDP figure and I have marked it's trading range. The figure caused a little spike but price quickly retraced back into its range so I'm still looking for the breakout and for price to start moving (in what ever direction that may be) The green circles mark off the swing points of yesterdays move before the range.The red circles show the last swing high and low before the range. The pink lines mark of yesterdays trading range and the same set up. As you can see the breakout got me short and was a fairly nice trade.


11:20


Nothing really exciting happening with this GBP trade. Price is slowly ticking down to the base of the range which I have marked of at 1.5187. Sooo if it gets there then we are looking to trade the breakout however it also presents the opportunity for a naughty range scalp. If price tests that level and bounces then ill be looking to buy and hopefully ride it up to the top of the range. I have several ways determining if price has bounced or not and I'll post the setup if we Ever get there. The same theory can also be applied to shorting at the top of the range. While targets arn't large in this trade plan there is the potential to grab several bites of the cherry and can turn a slow day into a profitable one.


13:03


GBP breaks out of the range however I didn't take the trade. There where a few reasons why, firstly it was right on the border of having done 65-70% of its average day move (A theory which is not mine but a good one none the less and I think there are a few posts on here about it) But ultimately the reason was being a little to close to the GDP figure. As I said earlier I'm not usually too bothered about news announcements and figures however major figures such as GDP, NFP and interest rate decisions are enough to keep me out of the market, mainly just to avoid being stopped out by a spike. If I'm already in a trade there is not much I can do but I didn't want to take a position this close to the number This time it worked out in my favor as the trade would of been stopped out had I taken it however it could of just as easily come off and been profitable.


so had I taken the trade in the usual way. Red circle marks the breakout low, -2 round down to give an entry of 1.5180 (red line) stop goes above the pullback high +2 round up (blueline) at 95 and as you can see I would of just come about 2 ticks shy of the scale but would of been stopped out.On a side note these arn't the only trade setups I'm taking just the only ones im posting at the moment, didn't want you to think I sat here all day doing nothing.

24 Febuary 2010GBP/USD March 10 Contract:

This is a 10 min chart that shows the overnight range nice and clearly. Again the definition of a range for me is price being contained between its previous swing high and its previous swing low (marked with red circles) So mark off the boundary and wait for the breakout.

So the same as I did before. I drop to a lower time frame and wait for the break out.

This happened just after 08:30 and is marked by the red circle. So same process take the breakout low and -2 round it down giving an entry of 1.5300 (red line). Stop goes above the pullback high (blue circle) +2 round it up giving a stop of 1.5325 (light blue line). So thats a 25 tick stop half of 25 is 12.5 (13). So my scale out point is 1.5287 (green line) where I closed out 2/3rds of my trade leaving the last 3rd to run.

Now I know this is a little incomplete about the last the 3rd but I just want to run through this particular trade setup a few times and how I get in and where my stop goes as I think its a solid price action setup. There is no need for complex analysis or indicators all of the place. Its a simple range bound break out setup and I hope it gives a little insight into how I'm trading.

For me on this trade I hit 13 ticks on 2/3rds of my position and my last 3rd was break even. So again not gunna break the bank but if you working from a 3lot position then it boils down to 26 ticks to one lot. (I hope that makes sense)

I promise i'll run through the trade management for this setup soon and this isn't the only stratergy I look to employ I just felt it was a good starting point.Thanks for having a look and please any feedback is welcome.

Thanks

Pozzy

24/02/2010

Ok so im going to try and post in real time, Im only trading GBP/USD and EUR/USD at the moment.


24/02/10 EUR/USD March 10 contract:

Price is pretty much range bound and drifting sideways.I've used a 30 min chart to mark of the range because it is easier to see.















As you can see the Euro sold of rather nicely yesterday and made its swing Low at 1.3500(nice double 00 figure) Its previous swing High was at 1.3580. Now since price is neither making new swing highs or new swing lows I would define it as Range bound. So the range is marked off and its time to sit on hands and wait until there is a break out. Price did poke out for a cheeky false breakout at around 20:30 last night.


GBP/USD March 10 Contract:

As boring as it might be GBP/USD in pretty much the same situation.



















There was the big sell off yesterday on the back of King and the BOE statements and now the market is drifting sideways. It is very easy to look to the left of the chart see the big moves and feel that the range isn't valid or that its an 80 tick range so there is still plenty of potential to scalp within it. However price is caught between its previous swing high and low and until it breaks out the market will chop around within this boundary so for me the kettle goes on and it becomes a waiting game.


10:48 False break out on GBP:






Price on the GBP just pokes its nose out of its currents range signaling the possibility of a Long trade.

dropping down to a lower time frame, (I use a 2 min but thats just my preference) We can see MACD has also made a bullish cross. This gives a nice suggestion that buyers are entering the market and confirms a Long entry for me. I place my entry above the breakout high so in this case 1.5480 (this guards against a false BO) yet before that order triggers MACD crosses again bearish and the trade is canceled. Price drifts back into its range. Back to waiting